The first panel at the SPA2008 Conference addressed the interesting topic 'Is Software Practice Advancing' with particular reference to the last 15 years. In summary, the panel said 'Yes, just!' after considering programming languages, software design and project management.
COMMENT: I would say that there are an increasing number of languages which are now available and supported due to the convergence on to two development platforms (Unix (and all flavours of) , and Microsoft) as the use of proprietary systems has diminished. However, the days of the coder maybe numbered as an increasing number of tools can now auto-generate significant amounts of code.
Software Design also hasn't changed significantly in the last 15 years although the debates about OO notations being finally resolved with the release of UML. Maybe what has changed is the way software is now assembled as there is now acceptance that using open-source components and 'glueing them together' is more than adequate for many applications and demonstrates good software re-use. More complex (and better?) systems are now being produced although the design skill level hasn't changed; it may actually have decreased as design becomes unfashionable as the need to 'write code and get something working' results in formal design processes being side-stepped. The production of software architecture has improved and is recognised as being of value to all developments.
COMMENT: The rise and maturity of the open-source is now having an increasing influence on software developments - the development and adoption of standards has probably helped this. The rise of the web has probably contriubuted to the loss of design fomality. There is still no substitute for expereince when designing systems. The use of tools to support the design process, particularly for large systems which are adopting model-driven developments, could lead to some changes in the perception of design and result in changes in effort profiles for software developments as the emphaisis changes to design and integration rather than coding.
The final section of interest covered project management where it was remarked that some techniques have improved, the practice is still poor. Projects have got bigger and bigger and the probability of failure has only marginally decreased over the last 15 years (still >70% chance of failure). The widespread adoption of agile and iterative life cycles over the traditional waterfall life cycle has not been as dramatic as the noise made by the agile community would have us believe.
COMMENT There is no precise definition of what Project Management is as it can cover a vast array of activities depending on the size of the development. Some approaches have been made e.g. OGC, PRINCE, DSDM to try and formalise the activities but these don't adequately address a badly specified and procured system which are often root causes of many project failures.